Is Berlusconi Bonkers or will he rescue AC Milan once again?

On paper, it seems ludicrous.

AC Milan’s Max Allegri is on the verge of being sacked by Silvio Berlusconi – and if you believe Italian TV’s Aldo Biscardi – it’s only a matter of time. After a Scudetto in his first season, narrowly missing out to Antonio Conte’s unbeaten Juventus in his second and recovering from the worst start in Milan’s history for several decades to rescue Champions League football from the jaws of mediocrity (read: The Europa League) in his third – it seems entirely ridiculous that Milan would consider relieving Allegri of his duties.

Yet they are.

In addition to allowing the former Cagliari tactician to leave Via Turati with a bemused look on his face and catch the next train to the Capital, it appears that next guy in line is former AC Milan midfielder Clarence Seedorf – who is yet to finish his playing career, by the way.

It’s too crazy to believe, right?

The fact is though, it isn’t and if you look into Milan’s history – it’s not the first time Silvio Berlusconi took a risk when picking a coach.

Back to back European Cup winning tactician Arrigo Sacchi was in Serie B with just two years experience when Berlusconi hired him. It is thought that Sacchi’s Parma beating AC Milan in the Coppa Italia was 90 minutes enough for Berlusconi to decide that Sacchi was the man. Fabio Capello had never managed a club in his career when he was tasked with replacing one of Europe’s greatest in Sacchi, and led the Rossoneri to four league titles and a Champions League (it may have been two, if not for the contentious final against Marseille in 1993).

Leonardo was persuaded to take up his first coaching role at Milan and the Rossoneri’s history is littered with managers whose first ‘big’ job was AC Milan, from Alberto Zaccheroni to Massimiliano Allegri.

Another pattern is that Silvio Berlusconi likes former players; six of the last eleven men who have been in charge of the Rossoneri have played for Milan as players, and the coaching staff and “ambassadorial” team is littered with former employees.

Clarence Seedorf fits both categories.

Intelligent, diplomatic, multi-lingual and a natural leader – Clarence Seedorf is more than any current player the perfect candidate for a future coaching job. He is well respected, well liked and Fabio Capello called him his “coach on the field” when the two were at Real Madrid. It is thought that Seedorf’s tactical clarity and careful observations are reminiscent of another former player and successful boss; Carlo Ancelotti. In addition Seedorf, unlike Paolo Maldini, has great relations with Milan’s board. Milan want a manager to win the Champions League? Seedorf has four.

Allegri will be unfortunate should he relieved of his duties in the coming weeks – he has done as much as can be expected with an often threadbare squad, but his core philosophies as a coach directly conflict with what Berlusconi admires and his performances against European and Serie A rivals has been mediocre at best, and dreadful at worst.

The 4-3-1-2 that has been utilised during much of his reign was effective in the first season as Milan roared to the title but too often in years two and three have seen the Rossoneri playing stagnant football, relying on physical presences up front to secure points – Zlatan Ibrahimovic first, Mario Balotelli second.

Too often Milan have struggled, looking pedestrian and predictable while teams with lower wage bills and transfer funds like Fiorentina and Udinese have succeeded while playing high octane, high pressure football with tactical variety and bravery. With Allegri, Milan have been effective but not inspiring and under a president like Silvio Berlusconi, that’s simply not enough.

Allegri’s consistency is admirable and this writer praised him earlier on in the year when the ex-Cagliari coach led Milan out of an awful start to record the second best points tally in Italy to steal third place, but his managerial stint in Milan has often felt transitional. Praised for his discipline with regard to sticking to his beliefs and making his own decisions – it is often forgotten that those decisions include giving Juventus Andrea Pirlo and risking the long term health of Thiago Silva by starting the clearly unfit Brazilian against Roma in April of 2012.

Selections and tactics have often been baffling – Kevin Constant at left back against Barcelona, Urby Emmanuelson as a trequartista and Kevin Prince Boateng as a right winger are among the tactical experiments that Allegri has tried while coach of Milan, none more frustrating than letting go of the aforementioned Pirlo because he’d “have to re-organise his entire midfield” to fit the veteran in. It’s perhaps safe to say with hindsight, that he should have done that reshuffle.

The tactics that did work didn’t last long – Antonio Nocerino’s transformation into a goalscoring midfielder of some pedigree died out when the space that Zlatan Ibrahimovic granted him quickly closed up with his departure, while the “forward destroyer” of Kevin Prince Boateng was effective when Milan could rely on any one of Ibrahimovic, Robinho, Pato, Ronaldinho or latterly Antonio Cassano as strikers in front of him – without those players to take up the creative mantle Boateng is often exposed as a technically sound but with a vision-deficiency that belies the number 10 on his back.

If Massimiliano Allegri is sacked he can look back on his tenure in charge of Milan as one of relative success – where he won a long awaited league title and laid the foundation for a good young team in the face of financial adversity, but a lack of tactical nous and variety will be the epitaph on his Rossoneri career should this be the end.

Replacing him with Clarence Seedorf would be a huge and mostly unpopular risk for AC Milan and their management but as Silvio Berlusconi has proven before – it often pays off.