Lazio Club Focus: Analysing the run-in

With eleven games for Lazio until the end of the 2013/14 Serie A season, it seems that the only remaining tussle of any interest (other than the predictable scrap for survival) is the race for the fifth spot currently occupied by Inter.

For a while it seemed certain that sixth place would also be a guaranteed European spot given Fiorentina’s early-season form and subsequent run to the Coppa Italia final, but there is now a gap of merely two points separating the Viola from a seemingly unbeatable Parma side in sixth.

With eleven games remaining and Lazio sitting in eighth, I decided to do some stat-digging and find out who can be said to be favourites to finish fifth amongst the Biancoceleste and their rivals currently above them in the table: Inter, Parma and Verona.

It must also be said that Torino, Milan and Genoa cannot be ruled out for a late-season surge, but for the sake of keeping things concise I have decided to focus my attentions on the six point gap Lazio must surmount to overtake these three sides.

I will consider three key aspects of the run-in: The difficulty of remaining fixtures, the amount of ‘big seven’ sides left to play and the teams’ form over the previous eleven matches. Let’s get started!

1. Difficulty of run-in.

I decided the best way to measure this without having to cast individual opinions over the quality of Serie A sides was to calculate the average league position of the remaining opposition based on the current standings.

Inter: Verona (a), Atalanta (h), Udinese (h), Livorno (a), Bologna (h), Sampdoria (a), Parma (a), Napoli (a), AC Milan (a), Lazio (h), Chievo (a)

Average position = 11 (11.27)

Parma: Milan (a), Genoa (h), Juve (a), Lazio (a), Napoli (h), Bologna (a), Inter (h), Cagliari (a), Sampdoria (h), Torino (a), Livorno (h)

Average position = 10 (9.9)

Verona: Inter (h), Sampdoria (a), Cagliari (a), Genoa (h), Chievo (a), Fiorentina (h), Atalanta (a), Catania (h), Lazio (a), Udinese (h), Napoli (a)

Average position = 11 (10.91)

Lazio: Cagliari (a), AC Milan (h), Genoa (a),  Parma (h), Sampdoria (h),  Napoli (a),  Torino (h), Livorno (a), Verona (h), Inter (a), Bologna (h)

Average position = 10 (10.27)

And the winner is…Inter! The average position of Inter’s eleven opponents between now and the end of the season is lower than that of their rivals, good news for the Nerazzurri.

Rankings as follows, in order of easiest run-in to most difficult:

1. Inter (11.27)
2. Verona (10.91)
3. Lazio (10.27)
4. Parma (9.9)

2. ‘Big seven’ sides left to play.

This will probably be a point of contention for some, but here I am defining Serie A’s ‘Big Seven’ as Juventus, Milan, Inter, Roma, Lazio, Fiorentina and Napoli. These are traditionally and (relatively) consistently the hardest fixtures on the calcio calendar.

In this category, Inter again triumph.

1. Inter: Napoli, Milan, Lazio

2. Lazio: Napoli, Milan, Inter

3. Verona: Inter, Fiorentina, Lazio, Napoli

4. Parma: Milan, Juventus, Lazio, Napoli, Inter

I have given Inter the victory in this category as the decisive clash is Inter vs. Lazio and the Aquile are currently sitting three places below the Nerazzurri.

3. Form

The final category will be the clincher for most, but it does offer some serious complications to anyone planning on placing a bet on this year’s fifth-place side. Parma are second only to Juventus in terms of form over the last six games, and when I went back to find out form statistics over the previous eleven fixtures they were no less impressive.

1. Parma:    DDWWWWDWDWW (7W 4D 0L = 25pts)
2. Lazio:       LWDWDWDLWWL (5W 3D 3L = 18pts)
3. Verona:  WWLLLWDLWDL (4W 2D 5L = 14pts)
4. Inter:       LLDLDLWWDDW (3W 4D 4L = 13pts)

This victory for Parma makes for some interesting reading. Despite having decidedly the most difficult remaining fixtures including the most games against ‘Big Seven’ sides, the gialloblu are on such hot form that you would certainly think twice before betting against them winning any of those encounters, Juventus included. Inter meanwhile, having enjoyed success in both of the last two categories, are on the worst form of the four sides. They have however improved recently, but their dismal January form goes some way to show that they are some way off being the finished article.

What does this mean for Lazio?

The most important question and apologies for taking so long to address it. It is difficult to say what laziali can take away from these statistics, finishing second in two categories and third in the other. So I decided to find a statistic that Lazio would dominate comprehensively, and I managed. It is the ratio of home/away games remaining before the end of the season. The table looks like this:

1. Lazio (6 home, 5 away)

2. Verona (5 home, 6 away)

2. Parma (5 home, 6 away)

3. Inter (4 home, 7 away)

Again Inter are at a disadvantage and Lazio on this occasion take the crown. But anyone who has followed the Biancoceleste in recent weeks will realise that being at home is by no means an advantage any more, a fact that was spelled out in the most brutal of fashions against Atalanta last week. Around 2000 people turned up to the Olimpico, deserted by protesting Ultras who left a myriad of banners declaring sentiments like ‘It’s him or us’, ‘Lotito out’ and ‘Lazio is ours and we will leave it to our children’.

The run-in is going to be fiercely contested and we must remember that I have not even considered the remaining games for Torino, Milan and Genoa who are breathing down Reja’s neck as we speak. It is a contest that will be decided by the narrowest of margins and therefore the narrowest of advantages must be taken. Unfortunately for the players there will be no let up in the protests, although what form they will take from now on remains unclear.

One thing Lazio (and Inter for that matter) can choose to see as a big advantage is that they have the chance to beat all their rivals before the end of the season. Should the Aquile record wins over Verona, Parma and Inter then they would be in a very strong position to experience European football next season.

Predictable is one thing this Lazio side are not and it is unforeseeable, even to an experienced Lazio fan like me, to say what will happen away to Cagliari on Sunday. Edy Reja must rediscover the kind of organised, clinical performances that characterised the impact of his return to the club so that they can press home the small advantages they hold over their rivals in the run-in.

Just remember, we didn’t finish bottom of any of these stat tables…

Follow Alasdair Mackenzie on Twitter: @olimpiacalcio