Despite their impressive recent form, numbers seem to be against the Viola when it comes to their European aspirations, as their sluggish start might prove too big a handicap to overcome.
Languishing in mid-table as Serie A shutdown for the winter break there was little sign that Fiorentina would mount a third assault on Champions League qualification under Vincenzo Montella, and in fact seem set to miss out on European competition altogether.
However, after losing to bottom club Parma when action resumed, the Viola have been on a tremendous run, remaining unbeaten and challenging on three fronts with the UEFA Europa League and Coppa Italia within their sights.
With the former also now a route to Europe’s premier club competition, Fiorentina could have been excused for seeing it as their most likely route to redemption for a campaign aimed at improving on consecutive fourth place finishes.
That was clearly not the focus, though, and although Napoli are embarking on their customary strong finish, Roma in second are falling away with each passing week.
Should Juventus defeat them at the Stadio Olimpico on Monday night, it could be a blow that — at least psychologically — the Roma could find hard to recover from given their similar collapse last season. Such a scenario would indeed allow Fiorentina to pounce.
Depleted by injury at times it is easy to see why the team has struggled, however, with main striker Giuseppe Rossi yet to return and Mario Gomez erratic in front of goal credit goes to Montella for moulding the materials at his disposal.
Time has played its part integrating youngsters such as gifted striker Khouma Boubacar, but the performances of Alessandro Diamanti and Mohamed Salah in the wake of Juan Cuadrado’s departure make them inspired signings to say the least.
With three goals in five appearances the 22-year-old Egyptian has more than made up for the energy of the lively Colombian, while the former Bologna captain has proven his utility courtesy of his cultured left foot.
Although sceptics may point to the level of their Serie A opposition, the reality is that Fiorentina have uncovered a newfound resilience and determination post-Christmas.
Coming up is a far more daunting run of games with Inter, Lazio and Udinese all to face away from Florence before the end of March. Fiorentina will also have two-legged Coppa Italia semi-final tie against champions Juventus to contend with.
However, with Rossi now the last man on the treatment table and set to return early April, Montella will not be fazed and will know that positive results against fellow European hopefuls will be key to securing a third place finish.
What still remains to be seen is if Fiorentina have enough time to obtain enough points to oust the current incumbents of the Champions League berths though.
At the end of Montella’s first season — with the golden triangle of Borja Valero, Alberto Aquilani and David Pizarro — Fiorentina achieved a phenomenal average of 2.2 points per game, amassing 31 points from a possible 42.
Even that wasn’t enough to overtake AC Milan, and in the two seasons under Montella, Fiorentina have averaged two points per game from matchday 24 onwards. Therefore, should they replicate that form, it would see the Viola reach just 66 points this term.
Only in the 2011-12 season would that have been enough to finish third, with 70 points seemingly the threshold in four out of the last five seasons.
So despite adding steel to an entertaining brand of football Fiorentina again look set to miss out via Serie A — at least mathematically — and should perhaps focus on being on UEFA’s winning podium in Warsaw come May 27 instead.
