Following the qualification draw for Russia 2018, unseeded Italy face fear of a rare World Cup absence as they match up against the likes of Spain in Group G.
When Swansea City forward Eder slid in to give Portugal the lead against Italy in June, there was already an impression of how important that goal might prove to be.
The crucial match-up had been billed as a must-win task for the Azzurri, however the essential victory was out of grasp thanks to the 27-year-old’s solitary goal.
Following this defeat, the unseeded Italians have been grouped alongside Spain, Albania, Israel, Macedonia and Liechtenstein ahead of the upcoming World Cup 2018 qualification fixtures for the tournament in Russia.
With one automatic qualification place and only a single team likely to reach a playoff, Italy face the very real possibility of missing out on the World Cup finals for the first time since 1958.
Italy coach Antonio Conte has maintained that he is happy with the outcome of the group, and was surprisingly relieved that they will face off against Spain rather than the reigning World Cup holders Germany.
Indeed, not since 1994 have Italy overcome the 2010 World Cup winners in a competitive encounter and there have been some humbling meetings along the way; none more so than the 4-0 defeat in the 2012 European Championship final.
While Vicente Del Bosque’s side are currently in a period of transition, as the old guard of Xavi, David Villa and Iker Casillas make way for a new crop of youngsters itching to demonstrate La Roja’s strength going forward; with the likes of Koke, David de Gea and Juventus’ Alvaro Morata, who are all part of the new generation looking to regain the crown that they so recently lost.
As for Group G itself, Conte has admitted that there are two clear favourites in the race to qualify, but stressed that he must not underestimate the other teams around them.
Albania and Israel have achieved some impressive results during their recent campaigns, and both sit in a position that would earn them at least a playoff spot for Euro 2016. It would be a surprise to see either of them finish in the top two, but both will surely represent stern tests.
Even the games against the bottom-two seeded teams will take on a different complexion, as goal difference is the first tie-breaker should teams be level on points. Italy, especially under a coach who demands as high a level of discipline as Conte, are not free-scoring; and it dates back to 2011 since the Azzurri won a competitive game by more than two goals.
Unlike the new, wider, European Championships, where third position may be enough to secure qualification to the main event, the World Cup is a distinctly tighter ship.
Assuming that one of Italy or Spain wins the group, the other will likely go into a playoff and will face a tricky pairing from teams in Group A (containing both the Netherlands and France).
On the positive side, the Azzurri are traditionally consistent qualifiers and Antonio Conte’s side will need to start as well as possible if they are to put Spain under pressure. The fact that the two sides will meet somewhere in the peninsula during the second round of games will present a good opportunity to throw down the gauntlet.
Group G, then, will most likely turn out to be a two-horse race between Spain and Italy, two sides familiar with both World Cup success and World Cup humiliation in recent times.
Together they will be trying to re-assert themselves upon the international stage, and will enter the competition with some trepidation of the other.
The strength of a modern-day UEFA, combined with Italy’s poor recent showings — particularly in friendlies when the Azzurri have recorded draws with both Luxembourg and Haiti — has brought about a situation where one of the most feted teams in the world may well not qualify for the next World Cup.
It is, at this point, impossible to predict how the campaign will unfold 12 months from now, but the stark reality of being a second seed and the difficulty that brings, has been brought into focus by the draw in Russia.
Conte will have to do his best with the hand he has been dealt, while trying to make sure he future-proofs the Azzurri’s status for draws to come.
To that end, there are measures already in place to ensure that there will be a good chance of avoiding such a situation again, with blue riband friendlies arranged over the next 12 months against both Germany and Spain — victories in either of those would provide a welcome coefficient boost.
Portugal’s Eder may have scored just one international goal to date, but it unleashed a domino effect that could stretch to 2018 and beyond for Italy.
Italy can’t complian given they had their destinty in their own hands against Portugal. Now they have to go through Spain. Luckily, Spain is on the ‘desecent’ (in quotes because they are still a world class side) from their peak. Italy will have to find their stride. The Euro should shout provide some insight I reckon. The road to the WC runs through in addition to Spain, France or the Netherlands.
Worrisome indeed considering what’s on the line. Italy not qualifying would be stunning.