To be blunt, the United States would be lucky to even advance from Group G in the 2014 World Cup. However, there is a path for the United States to not only advance but finish first in the group.
The following scenario is not likely to happen in Brazil over the next two weeks, but it is a plausible scenario that would see the Yanks not only survive the group stage but advance to take on the Group H runner-up. If things go for the United States, we could see a shock run like they made in 2002.
1. Injuries derail Portugal and Germany.
Cristiano Ronaldo is already seemingly suffering from a knee injury and the total impact is unknown. Germany have lost a few key players to injury and although they have depth, having players working together who have not practiced or played together extensively could prevent Germany from clicking. These two teams are the most talented in the group but injury is the great equalizer.
2. Michael Bradley is the best player on the group
One area where the United States were able to outplay Ghana was in the midfield, and Michael Bradley as the advanced midfielder was the key to this. He traditionally has been used deeper in the midfield but with both club and country he has been used more forward. In this position in Klinsmann’s 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, it is important that he breaks up early counters and spurs the U.S. attack.
3. The United States avoids injuries at the forward position
The Yanks are inexperienced everywhere, but the talent level is equitable at most positions. The drop off in international talent between Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey, and their back-ups are greater. It is important that these two are healthy and productive; and the knocks they received against Ghana are not too serious.
4. The weather is a factor in the matches
The one advantage to the United States bringing a large number of MLS players to Brazil is that they are fresher than their European counterparts, owing to the fact that the MLS season is only four months in. If the heat and humidity wear teams down quicker – as it looks like it did in the Italy match versus England – than a fitter United States may have a step quicker on their opponents.
5. The officials do not call the matches tight
Even though they are not as overly physical as their reputation suggests, a referee that is susceptible to calling light fouls or falling for dives will hurt the United States, which is a step slower than their opponents. If their officials “let them play” to use the U.S. basketball phrase, they will not give up repeated dangerous set pieces.
6. The United States had to beat Ghana in their first match.
Failure by the Yanks to do anything but get all three points against Ghana would require them to outright beat the other two teams in the group, a tough ask. As good as Ghana is, they are the weakest of the United States three opponents. A victory also allows the United States to gain momentum by securing a rare victory over a team that tends to eliminate them from the World Cup.
7. The United States needs at least four points to finish the group
Ideally a win would need to come over Portugal, but a Portugal draw would also allow the U.S. to finish first. The problem is they would then need to beat the Germans which is the toughest match for the Yanks.
8. Germany draws their next match
If the Germans draw against Ghana, that would leave the standings after the second round as USA 6/4, Germany 4, Portugal 3/1, and Ghana 1.
9. Jurgen Klinsmann needs to tactically win every match
This would dispel his reputation as tactically light (ironic since one match would be against Jogi Low) and equalize a possible U.S. disadvantage in this group.
10. Every Yank player must play to their potential
Veteran players like Tim Howard need to play as well as they have in past tournaments. New players like Fabian Johnson need to play as well as Klinsmann has said they can. The formation needs to be flexible and dangerous on the counter to allow the U.S. to dictate play. If all of these things fall into place for the U.S., they could be surprise first place finishers in the group.
