When Brazil and Colombia walk out onto the Fortaleza pitch on Friday night the Brazilian nation will have breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Selecao not only squeezed past Chile in the last round, but will not be facing fellow South Americans Uruguay who would have carried with them the psychological lift of the Ghost of 1950.
Instead facing Los Cafeteros,after their impressive two-goal victory over a Uruguayan side in disarray from the Luis Suarez debacle, any psychological advantage has suddenly switched back to the World Cup hosts, given the ‘visitors’ record of registering just one victory over them in 14 attempts, back in 1991.
However, successive 1-1 draws in the last four meetings between them highlights that there will be little to separate them at the Estadio Castelao, particularly given the Colombians form at these finals, hitting 11 goals and conceding just twice.
With the ‘Uruguay factor’ gone Brazilian concern focuses on the absence, or potential absence, of two of coach Luiz Felipe Scolari’s most important figures, defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo and Selecao star man Neymar.
Although Brazil will have been able to plan for loss of the suspended Wolfsburg man for nearly a week the uncertainty surrounding the ability of the 22-year-old striker to shake off knee and thigh problems will have no doubt affected preparation.
However, it is just as big a risk that the Barcelona starlet takes part unsure of his physical condition, and his contribution significantly reduced like after the heavily challenge suffered early during the Last 16 tie with Chile. The Brazilians ‘have previous’ for counting on a star with health concerns – don’t mention France’98 at Ronaldo in the same breath!
Scolari will probably take the chance, with the team somewhat dependent on Neymar’s individual brilliance during this tournament when others have failed to live up to expectation, but whether fit or not missing Gustavo could well prove far more crucial.
While Jose Pekerman’s team are far less dependent on a single star James Rodriguez has arguably outshone even Neymar this summer with five goals – an absolute sublime effort versus Uruguay – and with his position between frontman Teofilo Guitierrez and a midfield duo Gustavo would have been earmarked as the man to restricted the Monaco man.
The 26-year-olds natural tendency to drop and cover his favoured left side, often vacated by the forward runs of full-back Marcelo he would have also helped nullify the effectiveness of the energetic forays of Fiorentina’s Juan Cuadrado and Juan Zuniga of Napoli.
None of the potential replacements for the 2013 Champions League winner come close to the tactical intelligence he possess and with Pablo Armero on the left equally engaging Dani Alves in more defending than he is accustomed to could signal trouble on the horizon.
In comparison, after never before reaching the quarter-final stages the nerves constructed from an expectant nation that should have a decent following inside the stadium could be the only, yet noteworthy, hurdle Los Cafeteros have to overcome.
Despite entertaining football from both teams that has brought a abundance of goals from open play, you can expect a tight contest in Fortaleza, somewhere Brazil have already failed to score when taking on Mexico, and could potentially rest on which side is the more clinical on the night.
With eight goals so far this campaign the Selecao are not far behind Colombia with 11, but are far more wasteful in front of goal, needing twice as many chances to score, Hulk the biggest culprit with the most shots (11) at this World Cup without registering a goal.
Three goals already in the last 15 minutes of their ties will serve as warning for Brazil that should home expectation see the hosts nervously retreat towards their goal as the minutes tick away that the Colombians have the ability to quickly snatch a second historic victory over their illustrious neighbours and leave a nation fearing the Ghost of 2014 for another half decade.
Follow Kevin Pogorzelski on Twitter: @rabbitrabbiton
