Serie A Round 25 preview: European hangovers or home comforts?

Date: 22nd February 2019 at 9:38am
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Following a busy European week for some Italian sides, one or two, in particular, will be happy to get back to domestic action as Serie A returns with round 25.

We begin with a potentially high-scoring encounter where both AC Milan and Empoli have scored in the last eight Serie A clashes between the two sides: 27 goals in total (3.4 per game on average). Having won seven of their first eight league games against Empoli at the San Siro (L1), AC Milan have only won one of the last four home matches against them (D1 L2).

This next match-up will be the 100th meeting between Torino and Atalanta in the top flight (Torino; W40 D38 L21). The hosts are keeping things tight at the back and the last time they conceded 22 goals or less in Serie A after MD24 came during the 1992/93 campaign.

Surprisingly, high-flying visitors, Atalanta have won just three of the last 35 away league games against Torino, their last win came back in April 2007.

Struggling Frosinone have won just 16 points from their 24 matches this season – only two sides in Serie A history (since three points have been awarded for a win) have managed to avoid relegation having won 16 points or fewer after 24 games (Parma 2006/07 and Crotone 2016/17).

Opponents Roma have come into good form of late and alongside Juventus, are the side to have gained the most points across the last seven Serie A games (17 points – W5 D2).

In the blue side of Genoa, Sampdoria have won just 18.5 percent of their league games against Cagliari. Only against Inter (16.1 percent) do they have a lower win percentage in the top-flight. Cagliari forward Leonardo Pavoletti has scored five goals in six Serie A games against Sampdoria (netting four at Ferraris), more than against any other opponent.

Maybe not the side to face an angry Juventus following their poor result against Atletico Madrid are Bologna, who have won just one of their last 32 games against Juventus (W1 D9 L22), a 2-0 victory in February 2011.

Visiting talisman Paulo Dybala has scored five goals in seven games with Juventus against Bologna in Serie A; the Argentinian striker scored his last away goal in the league last April (a hat-trick against Benevento).

Fighting with Frosinone to be the worst team in Serie A are Chievo who have won only just one match in the top-flight this season. Of the previous eight teams to manage less than two wins after 24 MDs, each of them went on to be relegated.

A glimmer of hope for the home side is that opponents Genoa have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 14 encounters away from home in Serie A, their longest such run since December 2015 (17).

Sassuolo have only won two of their nine previous games against sides from Emilia-Romagna (D3 L4), though their two victories did come against SPAL in September 2018 and October 2017. SPAL and Sassuolo have conceded six goals from corners in the league this season, the more than any other sides in the competition.

Parma have lost their last three home games; this after only losing two of their opening nine games at the Tardini (W3 D4).

Dries Mertens has scored two goals in his last three league games against Parma and finds himself just one goal shy of Attila Sallustro (77), as Napoli’s fifth highest goalscorer in Serie A and just two behind the man in fourth (Edinson Cavani – 78).

One of the stand-out games of the weekend sees Fiorentina take on Inter in Serie A since February 2014 (W3 D1), a 1-2 defeat thanks to goals from Palacio and Icardi. In 11 of the last 13 top-flight games between Fiorentina and Inter, there have been at least three goals scored (49 goals, 3.8 average per game).

The hosts are Mauro Icardi’s favourite target in Serie A (11 goals) – the Inter striker has found the net in each of his last five league games against the Viola (9 goals).

 

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