Serie A Round 32 Preview: The champions’ crowning

Date: 12th April 2019 at 11:50am
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In a season where the top and bottom places have been all but confirmed, this weekend could see those issues finalised for certain.

We begin with the likely formality of settling matters at the very top. Hoping to spoil the party are SPAL who have won only three percent of their previous encounters against Juventus in Serie A (W1 D12 L22) – this victory came back in February 1957 (3-1).

If Juventus avoid defeat in this game, they’ll be crowned league champions with six matches remaining – a new record for the earliest title win in Serie A.

In the capital, Roma have scored at least twice in each of their last nine home games against Udinese in the top-flight (26 in total), at an average of 2.9 per game (W8 L1).

The typical new manager bounce is still working for Udinese boss Igor Tudor who has won 14 points in seven league games (W4 D2 L1) – with an average of two points per game, he currently owns the best such ratio among Udinese managers in the three points per win era.

In a surprisingly one sided fixture traditionally, AC Milan are unbeaten since 1989 against Lazio at home in Serie A (P28 W17 D11).

Interestingly, their opponents have conceded a league-high 31 percent of their goals in the last 15 minutes of games this season (10/32), while AC Milan have conceded a league-low 30 percent of their goals in the first half (9/30).

Hoping to claim a unique accolade is AC Milan striker Krzysztof Pi?tek (eight goals with the Rossoneri) who could become the first player in Serie A history to have scored 10+ goals with two different teams in the same season.

Torino are unbeaten in their last eight meetings with Cagliari (W6 D2), after having lost five of the previous six against them.

Among strikers with fewer than 15 goals, Leonardo Pavoletti (13 points for Cagliari) and Andrea Belotti (11 for Torino) are the two strikers who have won the most from their goals in the top division this season.

After a turbulent few days in Florence, Fiorentina hope to get back to winning ways. They are unbeaten against Bologna in Serie A since 2013, with the Viola winning seven and drawing two of nine meetings.

The visitors have come into form at the right time and have won four of their last five league games, as many as they had in their previous 38 matches in the competition.

A local derby is usually an even match-up but amongst sides they have faced at least 50 times in the top-flight, Sampdoria have a lower loss percentage against city-rivals Genoa (24 percent) than any other opponent.

That being said, recent games have been closer encounters. Across the last 10 times Sampdoria have hosted Genoa in Serie A, on only three occasions have both sides scored, with 20 goals being scored in total (two per game average).

To two sides relying on their early season points hauls are Parma and Sassuolo. Parma (nine) and Sassuolo (11) are two of the three teams to have won the fewest points in Serie A in 2019 – only Chievo had earned fewer (three). With both looking to end the season strongly this is unlikely to be a one-sided affair.

The issue of relegation has been all but confirmed for a very long time now but should they fail to win this match, Chievo would be relegated for only the second time in their history.

Hoping to send the hosts down to Serie B are Napoli. Matters could be settled early in this game as the visitors have scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of their matches (17) than any other side in Serie A this season, hosts Chievo have conceded the most goals in this period (15).

Likely to join Chievo in the second tier are Frosinone. Among opponents against which the home side have lost all of their Serie A meetings, Inter are the only one against which Frosinone are yet to score a goal (three defeats and zero goals).

In a lacklustre campaign by his standards, Inter striker Mauro Icardi has scored seven of his 10 league goals this season in away games – he has never finished a campaign with more away goals than home goals.

We finish in Bergamo where Atalanta have lost just one of their last nine matches against Empoli in Serie A (W5 D3), although the defeat came in their last encounter.

Away side Empoli have never won twice against the Nerazzurri in a single campaign. This would be a brilliant time to do it to help secure Serie A status for next season.

 

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