For fans of the Italian national side, things are much clearer now that they have expunged the disaster of three straight friendly defeats with an encouraging 1-1 draw against the current World and European champions, Spain. Encouraging is as far as we shall go for the time being, Italy certainly had chances to have beaten the Spanish long before Fernando Torres blew at least two glorious moments towards the end of the match that could have plunged the Azzurri further into the footballing abyss. But it was a good performance nonetheless, which drew great plaudits from much of the European press considering the radical change in formation at such short notice.
However, this point against their Iberian cousins will be of little use if now Cesare Prandelli’s men fail to pick up a victory against an energetic Croatia that already has a toe in the next round after having seen off the challenge of the Irish. This second match will be a different proposition tactically for Italy, as Slaven Bilic plays a much more orthodox style of football and, perhaps worryingly, a style that mirrors somewhat the Russian team of Dick Advocaat. The patient tiki-taka build-up play will be replaced by something that is much more ‘bombastic’ if we can use such a term.
We have to assume that Prandelli will line up his team in the 3-5-2 formation that served him so well last Sunday. Defensively we see no reason to change the back three, but with a win now paramount, their could be room for one or two differences in personnel that we will suggest could be in the coach’s current tactical thinking.
We will offer two minor alterations to his previous starting XI. Emanuele Giaccherini put in an extensive amount of effort in the first game, sacrificing his attacking tendencies to ensure he covered the left hand side of the pitch by basically ‘getting in the way’ of any red shirt that entered his zone of play. Against Croatia, we believe that Federico Balzaretti might be better suited in this area; physically stronger than the diminutive Juventus player and more adept at cavalier style running to threaten the opponent’s flank, which is normally the main feature of a 3-5-2 (see Udinese or Napoli).
Balzaretti was one of the few bright spots of Italy’s Russian friendly disaster pre-Euro 2012 and with his natural propensity to attack the depth of the opposing defence, similar to Fabio Grosso circa 2006, this might be a solution to aid the Azzurri’s frontline and give Croatia something to think about. This would be especially important considering the impact Dario Srna had at right back against Ireland and Italy will do well to keep the full back more concerned with the defensive phase rather than his own overlapping runs to aid the Croatian forwards.
The second reason for Balzaretti’s inclusion dovetails nicely into why we hope Antonio Di Natale replaces Antonio Cassano rather than Mario Balotelli. Quite simply, SuperMario enjoys attacking from the left hand side and would link up very effectively with the Palermo left back. This could be a devastating scenario if Srna is out of position and would again force the right back into curtailing his forward runs.
Furthermore, we believe the Manchester City forward should play at the expense of the AC Milan ‘fantasista’ due to the physicality he would bring against the Croatian centre backs (traditionally very powerful) and more importantly a sign of faith from Prandelli, after that ‘miss’ against Spain. Worryingly, Cassano has had off the field issues this week after his gaffe in a press interview when asked about gay footballers and we fear his concentration might not be at optimum levels and he could be easily baited by his opponents. To replace him with a mobile and in-form Antonio Di Natale seems to make perfect sense, Italy needs a goal and ‘Toto’ certainly knows how to find the net. He also has 90 minutes of fitness in him, which is something that might not be the case for Fantantonio. Italy should not be in a position where a substitution is already planned prior to the match having started.
In midfield we anticipate a very tense battle as the Croatians also field a trio of players, and we shall now take a look at the likely set up that will face Italy.
We do not expect to see any changes from Slaven Bilic having already safely negotiated their opening match with a degree of style. The full backs were employed in a very offensive fashion with midfielder Ognjen Vukojevic operating just ahead of the central defensive pairing offering some extra protection. The key battle may well be in the centre and whether it is Luka Modric or Andrea Pirlo that has the more time to make the play. Modric is the younger man with the stronger legs, and may handle better what appears to be a very congested centre of the pitch.
The Croatians will no doubt employ a much quicker and direct passing game than that which Spain practice, hoping for darting movements from its front two who will make 3 or 4 yard piercing sprints in between the Italian back line. Moreover, Italy will need to be wary of conceding free kicks to their opponents that could allow high balls lofted into their penalty area, as the aerial threat that Croatia bring to this match may well be a deciding factor.
To summarise, in their opening match the Azzurri defended in numbers and in depth which was expected against the patient passing style that Spain are renowned for. Croatia have a much more direct and pacy system directed by Luka Modric, and Prandelli will need to be wary of being caught on the counter attack as his team pushes for a goal. The critical areas could be the central midfield battle between Modric and Pirlo and also which team has the more effective and dangerous full backs.
Another interesting match awaits, as this 3-5-2 is given a second and entirely different tactical examination.
