Vincenzo Montella’s hopes of guiding Fiorentina back into the Champions League at the first attempt are hanging by a thread, with this weekend’s visit of AC Milan surely representing the Viola’s last chance to stake their claim for a third place finish.
Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Cagliari coupled with Milan’s 1-0 triumph over Chievo means the Rossoneri will arrive at the Artemio Franchi with a healthy six point lead over their nearest rivals, and if the recent history of this fixture is any indicator, Massimiliano Allegri’s men can be confident of widening the chasm even further.
Not since November 2005 have the Viola celebrated a home win over Milan, with a Luca Toni double and Martin Jorgensen strike setting Cesare Prandelli’s men on course for a 3-1 victory against a star-laden side that had come agonisingly close to Champions League glory a matter of months earlier.
Since then Milan have proven to be incredibly ungracious guests on their trips to Tuscany, with the Viola taking a meagre two points during the six full seasons that have followed.
The Viola’s current defensive form offers another reason to be fearful, with the side managing to record just two clean sheets since the turn of the year, while Montella’s decision to revert from a back three to a flat back four has failed to instil the desired level of extra resilience.
Against Cagliari, the marking of Mauricio Pinilla in the build-up to the Sardinian side’s opener was conspicuous only by its absence, giving the Chilean forward the time and space needed to casually collect Albin Ekdal’s looping forward header before unleashing a terrific effort into the top corner.
Similarly, the fact that winger Juan Cuadrado was providing the last line of defence against a rapidly breaking Marco Sau – clumsily bringing the forward down and paving the way for Pinilla’s second from the penalty spot in the process – showed a damaging lack of responsibility and awareness from the back four.
Frankly, the thought of a Milan front line of Mario Balotelli, Stephan El Shaarawy and M’Baye Niang pouring forward against this current Fiorentina back line is terrifying.
So, what hope do Fiorentina have of springing a surprise on Sunday, with the odds so clearly stacked against them? Well, as poor as Montella’s side have been from a defensive point of view in recent weeks, they have continued to find the net with a satisfying regularity.
With 54 league goals already this season, 33 of which have come at the Artemio Franchi, the Viola’s attack is clearly a tough proposition for any defence to deal with.
However, with Milan keeping four straight clean sheets and conceding just six goals in their last 12 league matches, a likely front trio of Adem Ljajic, Cuadrado and – if passed fit – Stevan Jovetic will undoubtedly have their work cut out.
Ultimately, this is a fixture that has the potential to be won and lost in midfield. If David Pizarro can stamp his authority on proceedings in the way that he has so often done this season, particularly at home, then that could be the key to unpicking the Rossoneri’s stubborn defence.
Conversely, if Riccardo Montolivo’s increasing influence at the heart of Allegri’s side continues to flourish, then a first return to his old stomping ground could prove to be an unhappy one for the assembled Viola tifosi.
In truth, all the signs are pointing towards a Milan victory that would end once and for all any hopes of the Viola claiming a Champions League berth, at least for this season.
However, with Montella’s side proving themselves capable of pulling a heroic performance out of the bag on a number of occasions this season, both when it is least expected and perhaps most needed – Juventus and Inter at home, Lazio away, for instance – nothing can yet be ruled out.
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Jovetic isn’t fit and Gonzalo Ia suspended, so its gonna be hard. But i am still confident milan will go back to Milano, the way inter die a couple of weeks ago. Forza viola!