For AC Milan coach Gennaro Gattuso, picking the right No.9 to lead the Rossoneri attack must feel like playing rock-paper-scissors in front of a mirror. The eye test would suggest that the choice should be obvious, but a closer look at the statistics would also beg to differ.
Between Andre Silva, Nikola Kalinic and Patrick Cutrone, it is not hard to imagine who the Milan fans would prefer. The problem is that Gattuso only arrived in late November and is likely still evaluating his squad. “The three strikers have been rotated a lot,” the Rossoneri coach told La Gazzetta dello Sport, “and I will maintain this policy.”
Indeed the message is clear, and there should be a level of sympathy for the Diavolo boss’ predicament. Part of the problem is that the Rossoneri are forced into a system in which they can only afford to play with a lone striker. Despite Silvio Berlusconi’s wishes, it is too difficult for Milan to consider playing with two strikers given the current personnel. In fact, the recent results can be attributed to Gattuso getting back to basics and putting players in their natural positions. Mostly, that means accommodating a place out wide to one of the team’s more decisive forwards: Suso.
Of course playing with a lone striker isn’t a terrible idea for most fans, assuming that crowd favourite Cutrone fills that role. The 20-year-old has impressed this season, netting eight times and possessing the best minutes-to-goals ratio. The Italian has found the net once every 158 minutes, compared to 203 minutes for Silva and 387 for Kalinic. Not only that, but his goal haul is superior to his teammates, with the Portuguese trailing behind him by two and the ex-Fiorentina hitman totalling just half his tally this campaign.
The problem with Cutrone however is that he is the cheapest of the three. With the important summer investments, it is normal that the club hierarchy would be adamant to justify the €38 million spent on Silva and €25m tied up to eventually make Kalinic’s loan permanent. Moreover, it is a bit jarring when the academy graduate is outshining Milan’s big-money signings after such a busy transfer period. In this instance, Gattuso’s issue in awarding Cutrone the No.9 role is one of legitimacy.
Of course if Cutrone is proving on the field, despite whatever he might have cost, why shouldn’t he play every week? Scoring goals is very important, but the job of a lone striker also requires said forward to contribute in other areas of the field. Andre Silva has created 23 goalscoring opportunities for instance, suggesting he helps the overall fluidity of play. The much-maligned Kalinic has actually been the best performer in that regard, with 38 compared to the Italian’s 16.
As interesting as the numbers might be though, they only paint part of the picture without answering the question of who should lead the line for Milan. They do serve to highlight the difficulty of Gattuso’s choice however. For the most part, the perception has been that Kalinic always plays, Silva never does, and Cutrone ought to be afforded more opportunities. The fact is that the trio have more or less clocked the same amount of time on the field. Kalinic counts 1549 minutes played this season, with Cutrone and Silva at 1266 and 1220 respectively. In other words, the Croat has played roughly just three more games than his teammates.
When it comes to strikers though, there is only one statistic that really counts: goals scored. Silva has failed to find the back of the net in 628 Serie A minutes, while Kalinic hasn’t scored in his last six matches. On the other hand, Cutrone is the man who won the derby against Inter in the Coppa Italia and most recently netted in Milan’s impressive Serie A victory over Lazio.
Though Gattuso may simply be giving himself more time to consider his striker conundrum, following his declaration to maintain the rotation policy, but it would seem clear enough that the solution forward for Milan is Cutrone.
